Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 2.588797 3.012697 3.482085 4.040121 4.685253 5.407455 6.277170
2026-01-18 1.912318 2.475941 3.166678 4.074307 5.234595 6.667408 8.570793
2026-01-25 1.474627 2.084413 2.896584 4.054803 5.661745 7.810344 10.900091
2026-02-01 1.118771 1.704307 2.541379 3.820935 5.723360 8.443114 12.623403
2026-02-08 0.895124 1.455625 2.307828 3.691483 5.875616 9.183739 14.568283
2026-02-15 0.751340 1.295096 2.168453 3.664494 6.154675 10.123759 16.919002
2026-02-22 0.670932 1.218912 2.143624 3.805795 6.707280 11.547869 20.217726
2026-03-01 0.577932 1.102917 2.030682 3.774997 6.957716 12.497367 22.843325
2026-03-08 0.497449 0.994268 1.911133 3.709096 7.128352 13.319742 25.342629
2026-03-15 0.439623 0.917681 1.836481 3.710654 7.415325 14.375361 28.390348
2026-03-22 0.423098 0.919130 1.908655 4.001299 8.286670 16.613119 33.943569
2026-03-29 0.386652 0.873329 1.880110 4.085459 8.759568 18.142783 38.309416
2026-04-05 0.350562 0.824420 1.842218 4.154181 9.231046 19.771182 43.183921
2026-04-12 0.314054 0.768746 1.782433 4.169362 9.597653 21.247274 47.979168
2026-04-19 0.279298 0.710958 1.708909 4.142589 9.868994 22.560507 52.615783
2026-04-26 0.235469 0.623335 1.553199 3.901551 9.617957 22.699621 54.664431
2026-05-03 0.204599 0.562317 1.450200 3.768690 9.598019 23.351000 57.971893
2026-05-10 0.183593 0.522978 1.393709 3.740896 9.826761 24.606535 62.877832
2026-05-17 0.173433 0.510946 1.404199 3.884983 10.505191 27.023452 70.939427
2026-05-24 0.156410 0.476665 1.351125 3.853529 10.727036 28.348043 76.447819
2026-05-31 0.139958 0.440979 1.288533 3.786277 10.843917 29.422949 81.462916
2026-06-07 0.127973 0.416365 1.252676 3.787863 11.148444 31.023278 88.084252
2026-06-14 0.127161 0.425980 1.316083 4.084411 12.322218 35.083213 101.906786